Commentary: Why Tablets Still Suck

Years from now, people will reflect upon 2010 as the year of the multi-touch tablet.  Although multi-touch tablets have existed since at least 2008, Apple's iPad (love it or hate it) revolutionized the tablet PC last April and has spurred dozens of companies to create their own Android and Windows 7 tablets, many of which have actually either failed to deliver or failed to be released.

For example, we have the Fusion Garage joojoo, which is priced at a ridiculous $500 for a web-only table and has such a buggy, unintuitive interface that Engadget gave it a 3/10.   The first version of the HP Slate was so "slow and annoying", that HP pushed back the release while the blogosphere pronounced it all but dead.  We'll see what HP comes up with next time.   The Dell Streak could have the best software and hardware in the world, but with a 5" it hardly qualifies as a "tablet."  It's really a phone that can't make calls [insert iPhone 4 joke here].  The exoPC has a half-baked user interface and crappy battery life for $600.  The TegaTech Tega v2 also has crappy battery life with the finger-unfriendly Windows UI for $800.  The Samsung GalaxyTab may be the best offering from iPad competitors with decent specs and a $600 no-contract price (compare with the $630 3G iPad), but 7" is still pretty small for a tablet and no one has been able to review this device.  It might be as wack as the joojoo when it gets into our hands.

(This is not to say the iPad is the perfect device.  It definitely has too many limitations for me to buy one in its current iteration.  However, for most tablet consumers, Apple apparently found the right balance of form factor, speed, price, and usability.)

There seem to be two main problems with these problematic tablets. One is hardware.  It is apparently difficult to make a tablet with a large battery, decent form factor, and fast processor for a decent price ($500 or less).

The problem other is software.  All these Windows 7 and Android tablets have one thing in common: none of them are using a proper tablet operating system.  As many reviewers have said "Windows 7 is truly not a tablet operating system". Text and icons can be small and navigation is optimized for a mouse and keyboard, not for touch.  It also gives users the ability to run whatever applications they want at the expense of using lots of resources, making Win7 tablets slow.  As for Android, Google themselves have said "Froyo [the latest Android OS] is not optimized for use on tablets".  While joojoo doesn't use either Windows 7 nor Android, the problem is, once again, the OS.

Tablets suck because of their operating systems.  Even hardware issues like battery size and processor speed can be ignored if one is using a fast OS that doesn't drain the battery.  But amazing battery life and a zippy processor can't fix a UI that is a pain to use.  Because of the inherent limitations of Windows 7 and Android, competing tablets can only achieve mediocre success until the Microsoft and Google touch up their respective operating systems.

Speculation: The Verizon iPhone Rumor, Version 4

The iPhone was released exclusively (in America) for AT&T customers in 2007. Lots of evidence points to AT&T and Apple signing a five-year exclusivity contract, meaning the iPhone wouldn't be released to other American carriers until 2012. Yet, every year since then tech media have posted rumors of the iPhone moving to other carriers, usually Verizon by "next year".  It didn't happen in 2008, it didn't happen in 2009, and it's not happening in 2010. But the latest rumor says the iPhone will make its way to Verizon in 2011! This rumor, too, is false.

Maybe.

Although releasing an iPhone in 2011 would mean Apple would have to pay back AT&T part of the gajillion dollars they received for their iPhone exclusivity contract, this may not be such a bad idea.  Here's why:

1) AT&T is probably reaching a saturation point.  If you haven't bought an iPhone yet, you probably don't want one or aren't willing to switch carriers.  This means, more than ever, Apple can make a lot of money by selling the phone on a different carrier.

2) The iPhone is losing steam, frankly.  Already Android has overtaken iOS in worldwide mobile OS popularity by nearly 2%, coming in 3^rd after Symbian and BlackBerry OS.  IDC predicts that this distance will more than quintuple by 2014.  Although Apple's iOS is still beating Google's Android (and Microsoft's WinMo) in America, ComScore shows that iOS is only ~7% away higher than Android's market share and that Android's market share has grown more than 5% in recent months.  Android is coming and when it takes over, Apple's iPhone will become a niche cell phone, much like their desktops and laptops.

The iPhone can't and won't stay on top forever.  By 2011, iPhones will be less popular than Android (their main competitor) in the US and worldwide.  If Windows Phone 7 takes off, it will be even harder for Apple to hold on to their coveted position.  It would be in Apple's best interest to open sales of their phone to as many consumers as possible while the iPhone is still cool and coveted.  This moment, after their most revolutionary upgrade of the iPhone, is that time.  That's why you just might see a Verizon iPhone either in January 2011, or next summer when they release the fifth iPhone.