Speculation: Android and Others in 2012

Where are non-iOS phones going to go from here?  First, let's talk about Android updates:

Obvious Android Hardware Updates

• Higher resolution tablets and phones: The updated Transformer Prime (700T) due in the 2nd quarter of this year will give us the first "full HD" (1080p) tablet (unless the iPad 3 is released first), but it is unknown when we will get a full HD phone.  The 720p HTC Rezound released last year certainly has me salivating at the idea.  Especially in this age of 4.6" and up Android phones, 1080p shouldn't be too hard to pull off.
• LTE phones on Sprint and AT&T- LTE has beaten WiMAX in the 4G wars. Sprint and AT&T have been building their LTE networks, and LTE coverage is already available in certain areas.  The only question is how long T-Mobile will hold onto their plenty-fast HSPA+ network.
• Better cameras: The iPhone 4S and the Nokia 900 have/will have perfectly brilliant cameras, so it stands to reason that Android will step its game up in this area
• Quad-core processors, more memory: These specs have been steadily increasing for all smartphones, like the (rumored) quad-core, 2GB Motorola Atrix 3 
• NFC: The last two Nexuses and the Samsung Galaxy S II have had this feature (along with some others), so it can be reasoned that more and more phones will get NFC, especially if Google Wallet catches on

Android Battery and OS Updates
There are two big specs that I'm waiting on.  The first is battery capacity  The Droid Razr Maxx has a 3300mAh (!) battery that pretty much doubles the life of the Droid Razr, an Android phone with pretty standard battery life.  Engadget played a video on loop for 16.5 hours on that thing, which is outstanding.  If this doubling of battery life is possible by increasing the thickness of a 7mm phone to 9mm, imagine how big a battery could fit in, say a 11mm phone.  Quadruple?

The other big "spec" update I'm looking forward to is the operating system.  Android is great for customization, but has always been lacking in the stability, pretty-to-look-at, ease-of-use, and efficient-OS specs.  I am hoping Android improves these qualities.  These aren't hardware changes; these are software issues.

First is the aesthetics, which Ice Cream Sandwich (Android 4.0) has sufficiently addressed.  I'd have a hard time saying ICS is as pretty as iOS or Windows Phone 7, but it's definitely leaps and bounds better than Gingerbread.  When I compare a stock Gingerbread phone to iOS, it's like comparing Windows 98 to Mac OS X.  There may still be room for improvement here, but if nothing changes this year, I'll be alright with it.  In fact, I think there's little to no reason to skin Android anymore, so hopefully we'll see a reduction in the skinning of Android by HTC, Samsung and Motorola.  That won't happen immediately, of course, because skins are how manufacturers set themselves apart and pure Android Nexus phones always have hardware specs that are slightly worse than competing Android phones.  But I bet by 2013, manufacturers will have a hard time convincing users to buy phones that look worse than pure stock Android phones and get updates months later.  I've been led to believe that bad skins are a large reason for Android instability, so that should improve with more stock Android phones.

Much like the Windows vs OS X debate, Android is arguably more difficult to use than iOS.  Partly this is due to the lack of features and customization in iOS, but some of this is due to inconsistencies in apps.  For example, checkboxes are different in the settings for every app.  Some change their text when the box is checked, and others don't.  Concrete Example: In the settings for Handcent SMS, checking "Enable popup" in the Notification Settings will change the descriptive text to "Popup is enabled" and unchecking the box will change the text to "Popup is disabled".  Yet, just a few lines below that, the text below the Notifications checkbox reads "Display message notifications in the status bar" whether the checkbox is checked or not.  This descriptive text is useless when you can't tell if it applies to the current state of a setting or if the text is just static.  There are quite a few usability issues in Android like this.

Google took a step in the right direction.  They created an Android Design page to guide developers to creating intuitive, beautiful apps.  Sadly, descriptive text for settings is not addressed, but I'm sure this will be helpful nonetheless.

The OS itself may get some new usability features.  I really just want an "undo" feature.  But I can also see Google copying Apple's Siri, by giving more advanced voice capabilities to Android.  There are Siri-esque apps out there, like Iris and Jeannie, but they pretty much garbage compared to Siri.

Lastly, efficiency improvements are of utmost importance.  Slapping a huge capacity battery into the phone may be a sufficient solution, but Android needs to be better at managing its tasks.  If background data is turned off, then no programs should be running, unless they are OS-related tasks.  And my phone battery shouldn't dwindle down to nothing if I'm in an area with no cell coverage.

Android Price Point
As I said in the last article, tablets are going to get cheap, but that mostly refers to used, refurbished and discount tablets.  No one will be able to touch Amazon's Kindle Fire at $199. Tablets are still developing and adding features, so I imagine the average decent Android tablet (and iPad) will stay at $500 for another year.  While the introduction of Windows 8 tablets this year, one might expect the price to drop, but the hardware requirements for running Windows and the cost of a Windows license will probably make standard Win tablets $700 and up.  Amazon has a unique position here, using a free OS and an ecosystem that lets them sell tablets at a loss but make it up in media sales.  I look forward to the sequel to the Kindle Fire: a tablet that is $200-$300 but not as underpowered as the current Kindle Fire.


Windows Phone 7
This may be a good year for Microsoft fans.  Windows Phone 7 phones will start to catch up with iPhone and Android phone specs.  The upcoming Lumia 900 will be a 4.3" LTE phone with 16GB of memory, and a 8MP camera with 720p video.  I know what you Android fans are thinking: "Welcome to 2011, Microsoft."  Still, Microsoft has been steadily upping their game, especially by adding Nokia as a manufacturer, and while they may not catch up to the top-of-the-line Android phone this year, they have the rock-solid WP7 OS as a selling point.

Windows Phone 8 is rumored to be released this year, and that should bring many cool updates, like support for multiple display sizes, NFC, and some type of desktop OS (Windows 8) integration.


Blackberry
Blackberrys will continue their descent into insignificance.  RIM did a good job of booting their old CEOs but probably made a mistake hiring Thorsten Heins as the new CEO.  RIM stock took a dive when he was appointed and although it came up a bit a few days later, it's currently back down at 15.07.  Numerous bloggers have voiced their disapproval of Heins, mostly noting that he isn't going to make the drastic changes RIM needs to compete with Apple and Google.  What actual changes are in store for RIM and Blackberrys this year?  I don't really care; researching BB depresses me.  The only consolation is that they are still handily beating Windows Phone 7, though I am sure this will not continue.

Speculation: Apple Tech in 2012

Before I start with what's happening this year, I'd like to review what happened last year.  However, no one could possibly do a better job reviewing last year's tech stories than The Verge did a few weeks ago.  They covered everything except the death of Dennis Ritchie.  And let's be honest: you have no idea who that is.

On to 2012!

Apple iPad
The iPad 3 should drop in March or April, according to some sources.  Most rumors point to it having a higher resolution, Retina-Display-like screen and a faster processor (the A6) that might be quad-core.  The resolution is likely to double, giving the iPad a 2048 x 1536 resolution that would be better than full HD (1080p), but still not as good as an iPhone at 264 ppi (the iPhone's Retina Display is 330ppi).  However, since iPad is bigger than the iPhone and you hold it farther from your face, the resolution will be nearly as impressive.

The 3rd gen iPad could have some sort of 4G antenna, most likely LTE.  The terrible cameras will be upgraded, but I'm not sure whether the back camera will be as good as the iPhone 4S's back camera. PC World suggests the tablet may be thicker to accommodate new screen technology.  I think this is doubtful since, as they say in the article, "Apple products never get thicker, only thinner."  However, the addition of an LTE antenna has made several Android devices thicker (see: Galaxy Nexus), so if the iPad is a millimeter or so thicker, I'm betting that's the cause.

I haven't seen any tech outlets suggest this, but I'm sure it will have Siri.  It's a cool iPhone feature, the iPad will have the power to handle it (well, they all have the power to handle it, but that's another blog post), and it gives users another incentive to upgrade.

The price, of course, will be the same.  The old iPads will be discounted.  For some reason they're not selling the iPad 1 at the Apple Store (ignoring the Refurbished section), but I could see them selling the iPad 2 at a cheaper price, at least for a few weeks.  The cheapest iPad 1 dropped $100 when the iPad 2 came out.  Seems logical that the iPad 2 could drop $100 soon, too, making the iPad 1 cheaper on eBay, if not cheaper in the Refurb section of the Apple Store.

Tablets are about to get dirt cheap.

Apple iPhone
At some point this year there will be an OS update to iOS 6.  I have a difficult time imagining what it could contain... perhaps widgets?  Facebook integration?  I strongly believe Siri will finally be upgraded out of "beta."  This means support for more languages and an API for developers to hook into.  That could produce some awesome things, allowing apps to use Siri.

The 6th gen iPhone will have LTE.  There's just no way around this one.  The iPhone 4 missed having real 4G, which was acceptable because only the EVO had 4G at that point.  The iPhone 4S missed having real 4G, which was widely regarded as a mistake, given that there were dozens of Android phones using Verizon's LTE, T-Mobile's HSPA+ and Sprint's WiMAX.  Now there is no reason not to include an LTE antenna.  Sure, battery life will take a hit, but iPhones have had a great reputation for battery life (with some occasional lapses), so I'm sure the slightest increase in battery capacity will at least put the iPhone on par with other LTE phones in terms of battery life.  Additionally, since WiMAX is dying (Sprint is switching to LTE), AT&T has started rolling out its LTE network, and the iPhone is still unavailable on T-Mobile, the three national carriers that sell the iPhone will all have a decent-sized LTE network by the end of the year.  Even Windows Phone 7 phones are getting LTE this year.  Apple might as well hang it up if they can't manage to stick LTE in their next iPhone.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the iPhone on T-Mobile.

The chip may be an A6, like in the iPad, but if the A6 is indeed a quad-core processor, I'm not sure it will make it into the iPhone for power and heat reasons.

New design.  Maybe.  Apple put a lot and time and effort into designing the iPhone 4/4S and, honestly, it's still the most gorgeous phone out there.  The Droid RAZR is nice, we all like to look at Sony Experia phones, and the Nokia Lumia phones ain't too hard on the eyes either.  But the iPhone has a cleanliness, weight, and build that cannot be matched.  Why mess that up and chance making an uglier phone?  Mockups of what the 4S was rumored to look like are resurfacing, and I have to say: I'm not a fan.  The tear drop shape is not beautiful as the iPhones currently untapered bar shape, and the lack of any bezel means lots of accidental screen touching when just holding the phone.  Many gadget blog commenters were upset with the lack of a larger screen on the 4S (and these comments/articles were followed by poor explanations of why 3.5" is the "perfect" size), so I could see a slightly larger screen on the next iPhone (definitely nothing like those 4.5+" Android phones, though), but the rest of the phone should stay the same. Or get slightly thinner.  And maybe reduce the bezel at the top and bottom, but not the sides.

NFC, maybe.

The biggest question to me is what the 6th gen iPhone will be called.  Much to my chagrin, many tech news sites have been calling it the iPhone 5. I think it's mostly because people had high hopes for the 4S and they have poured them into the 6th gen iPhone.  Apple has a lot of options for the name:

• iPhone 5: This would be a way for Apple to acknowledge the mistake that was the iPhone 4S by pretending their 5th gen phone didn't count.  It also is the dominant name for the next iPhone on tech blogs, so most people would accept it easily.  Additionally, if they wanted to call the 6th gen iPhone an "iPhone 6" then the 4S should have been the "iPhone 5."  And, of course, 5 follows the 4 in the 4S.  Simple.
• iPhone 6: This is not a great name, but it would follow the 4's convention of naming the phone after the generation of the device.  And naming a 6th gen phone the "iPhone 5" makes no damn sense at all.  It's going to be running iOS 6, probably on an A6 processor.
• iPhone 4G: This would be a great name.  It emphasizes the LTE antenna and continues with the pattern of naming the phones after the antenna (i.e. the 3G) and the current trend of a 4 in the name.
• iPhone LTE: This also would be a great name.  By leaving out a number, Apple quells the iPhone 5 vs iPhone 6 argument and starts a new trend, while still emphasizing the new 4G antenna.
• iPhone HD: If they upgrade the resolution--especially, if they double it again--the next iPhone could have a better than full HD screen.  iPhone HD would be a great name that shows off this feature.

Apple TV

Apple is rumored to be working on a television set.  If so, you can bet it will be basically an LED TV with Apple TV integrated into the set.  It wouldn't make sense for anything else fancy (like blu-ray playback), basically an answer to the poorly-received Google TV.  iTunes/iPhone integration and maybe Siri.  Can't see it being a bit hit, so I'd be surprised if they actually released a TV set.

Oops, outta time. Android 2012 rumors next time.

Speculation: WebOS, WP7, and BlackBerry

Let's briefly talk about the dark horses in the mobile OS world.

WebOS
When I first read about the upcoming HP Pre3 (officially styled as Pre³), my first reaction was much like the gentleman in the latest Xtranormal video: HP wants to fail.  Why else would they wait until the release of the iPhone 5 to release a phone with specs that are worse than the iPhone 4 and on par with an average 2011 Android phone?  Worse resolution than the Retina Display, worse screen than the brilliant efficiency of Super AMOLED screens in many Android and WinPhone7 phones, worse battery capacity than both the iPhone and Nexus S, no gyroscope (for gaming), no HDMI out, no LTE, no WiMAX, and a mind-boggling lack of external memory, leaving only two embarrassing options for memory: 8GB and 16GB.

What are the Pre3's strengths?  WebOS 2.2, an update to a relatively well-received OS; HSPA+, the "4G" technology available on AT&T and T-Mobile, and 5GHz n-Wifi.  None of these features are blockbuster features that will put the Pre back on the map and I can't imagine that Apple and Google phones won't best these specs in almost every way come summer.  And while WebOS is supposedly great, iOS and Android both become better every couple months.  I suppose the Pre3's greatest strength is actually its compatibility with upcoming HP TouchPad, the upcoming WebOS tablet.  If the TouchPad is really successful, just maybe HP won't follow Nokia's lead and quietly kill off their phone division sometime in the next couple of years.

As for the TouchPad, I'm not sure what to say about it.  According to the specs, there is one interesting bit of information: it will have a 1.3MP front camera and no back camera, which makes sense.  In this area, HP seems to be the only one that gets it.  Front-facing cameras are necessary for video chatting, and you're seldom if ever going to hold up a 9+ inch tablet to take photos of your family.  Other tablet makers all have a back-facing camera with a higher resolution than the front facing camera.  While the addition of a back camera is definitely a positive, it is secondary.  The front camera should take better pictures.

Also, the TouchPad will have a 32GB model, which is nice and a battery comparable to the Xoom and PlayBook.  A bit heavy and thick, but the hardware seems decent.  We just need to see how WebOS holds up on tablets.

Windows Phone 7
Windows Phone 7 is a really cool OS that I had high hopes for until recently.  The hardware is great.  What's more is that Nokia, who has a history of making good mobile phone hardware, has finally given up on Symbian and got on board the Windows Phones train.  So WP7 should be able to keep up their solid hardware.  The only issue is their software and its lack of features.  It's been 4 months since the US launch of the new WP7 phones and they still lack copy and paste, multitasking, Flash, and unified email.  They also trail behind in apps.  WP7 has around 9,500 mobile applications, which is rather small when compared to Android's 275,000 and Apple's 350,000.  Does MS really think they can just deliver a feature-less phone and have users eat it up because the UI is pretty and innovative?  Who do they think they are, Apple?  However, I don't predict MS will give up any time soon, as they can keep pouring that XBox and Office suite money into their phones.

As for a tablet strategy, there is none.  All signs point to Microsoft tweaking their desktop OS to be more tablet friendly.

BlackBerry OS
Where to begin.  I never liked BlackBerrys (BlackBerries?) since I first messed around with one a couple years ago.  I found the organization of settings confusing and the trackball inferior to the up/down/left/right buttons found on most dumbphones.  Since then, RIM has updated the OS and the hardware to compete in this new age of capacitive multitouch smartphones.  However, it seems they have failed.  Blackberry has dropped from #2 to #3 in the top smartphone OSes in the US.  There doesn't seem to be a lot of excitement about BlackBerry anymore, and BlackBerry Messenger, the main reason for owning one is rumored to be coming to other phones.  I'm not sure what and when their next phone will be and I don't really care.

But there is a tablet.  The inappropriately-named business-oriented PlayBook is RIM's upcoming tablet.  We can gather a few things from the specs. The 7" size is simply too small for me (that'swhatshesaid), but others will praise the size of this almost pocketable gadget.  USB, HDMI, and Flash are all excellent features that will make this more useful out of the box than the new iPad 2.  The cameras look excellent, spec-wise, and there's plenty of storage choice with 16GB, 32GB and 64GB models.  4G is promised.

On paper, it looks great.  But will the OS be a big bucket of fail, like it is on their phones?  BlackBerry Tablet OS is based on QNX, an operating system RIM bought in 2010.  It actually looks decent (check out Engadget's video preview), with some comparing it to HP's WebOS (including HP themselves).  Like all other phone-tablet combos, the tablet will run the same apps as the phone.  What's more is that you can sync your PlayBook to your BlackBerry using Bluetooth so that the information is synced on both.  That is, the phone and tablet play nice.

The small size kills it for me, but if this thing is really $500 like the rumors have hinted, the PlayBook might hold its own against the iPad 2, especially for enterprise BB users.

Speculation: Android Phones and Tablets in 2011

Now that we've talked about what Apple has coming, let's talk about Android's 2011 phones.  Tablets are mentioned in the end.

Thinner, Better, Faster
Android phones are already heavy on features.  The bulk of the upgrades this year will be evolutionary.  Processors will be faster with the release of the dual-core phones, like the Motorola Atrix.  RAM will be increased; the Atrix and Samsung Galaxy S II have 1 gigabyte of RAM and it's reasonable to consider that 1GB will be standard by the end of 2011.  Screens will hopefully begin to approach the extraordinary resolution of the iPhone 4's Retina Display.  But even if they don't approach that excellent resolution, new Super AMOLED Plus screens (like the one in the Samsung Galaxy S II) are thinner, brighter and more efficient than the old SAMOLED screens (http://www.oled-info.com/super-amoled-plus).  Some phones will get thinner.  The Samsung Galaxy S II will be 8.5mm deep, a bit thinner than the iPhone 4's 9.3mm.  Video recording resolution will be bumped up to 1080p, like the LG Optimus 2X.  Cameras on the front and back will increase their megapixels.

The New Stuff
Front and Back Cameras: Is this worth mentioning?  The Nexus S, a dream phone in most other ways didn't have this, so perhaps it's worth saying that almost all Android phones will have this.

4G: A no-brainer (though also lacking from the Nexus S).  Pretty much all Android phones will have 4G (be it LTE, WiMAX, or HSPA+) in 2011.

Gorilla Glass: This ultra-tough glass featured in the Atrix and some other phones will make the screens difficult to break.

NFC: It's hard to say whether NFC will be successful in it's attempt to replace our credit cards as payment devices, but this hardware feature already on the Nexus S and coming to the Galaxy S II will most likely be seen on more Android phones in the future.  And even if it isn't used for payments, it could become a handy way to transfer information to and from the phone.  For example, you'll be able to pair bluetooth devices just by tapping them together.

DLNA: DLNA is a technology that allows you to stream media to your TV (or other devices) wirelessly, as long as both are on the same network.  This means, in short, streaming videos and pictures from your phone to your TV.  We're getting to an age where everything including your toaster is hooked up to your wireless router, so it's exciting to see this interconnectivity actually have a point.  Several phones have this already (Droid X, Droid 2, HTC Thunderbolt), so the only reason many phones may not get this in 2011 is because of seemingly slow adoption by TV manufacturers.

Cheaper Price: iPhone's have a rigid pricing structure, and unless you take your chances with eBay, you're gonna pay $200 for the cheapest iPhone with a new contract.  Not so with Android.  Secondhand phone dealers, such as Amazon.com and Radio Shack, have been knocking down prices on Android phones recently.  The Motorola Atrix is currently $200 from AT&T, but is $150 when you buy it from Amazon Wireless and $130 at Costco.  The availability of brand new, hi-tech, and less expensive Android phones will be the death knell of the iPhone.  When the iPhone 5 comes out this summer, every carrier will already have an Android phone that can do everything the new iPhone does, and for less money.  The iPhone will start to become a niche phone.

Ice Cream: In late 2011, a new version of Android OS will be released.  All signs point to it being a mix of the Gingerbread and Honeycomb versions of the OS.  All I can gather from this is that the beauty of Honeycomb's UI will make its way to phones.  It also might mean greater interactivity between Android phones and Android tablets.  But, if history is any indication, most 2011 Android phones won't receive the update in 2011, if they get it at all.

Hopes
Webtop: The absolute coolest thing about the Motorola Atrix is its "webtop" app that allows you to see your phone on a larger screen (laptop or TV) without simply stretching the screen.  Google would do well to build this functionality into its OS.  Even if it was a simple screen-stretching video out function, I can think of many uses putting your phone on the big screen.  Hopefully, Google will put something like this in Ice Cream, though I won't hold my breath.

Battery: With Android's already short battery life, more powerful processors will necessitate a larger battery.  Instead of making the phones thinner, let's make them a bit thicker with larger batteries.

Higher Resolution Screens: SAMOLED looks great and SAMOLED Plus should look even better, but it's hard to top the crisp, clean look of the iPhone 4's 326 pixels-per-inch Retina Display.  I want to see high-resolution screens on Android and the new big thing in Android screen technology--SAMOLED Plus--actually has a worse resolution per inch than SAMOLED (check the oled-info.com link above).

Wish List: What I Want
I am determined to get a new phone this year, after I see what the iPhone 5 has to offer.  Most likely, I will go with Android.  If I can find a 4G Android phone with 16GB internal storage, a pretty screen (SAMOLED Plus or something with a high pixel density), a way to show media on my TV (either DLNA or an HDMI port), and stock Android (or rootable so I can put stock Android on it), then I will buy it.  The Atrix almost fits most of this description and it was hard not to go out and buy it. The locked (or rather, signed) bootloader helped me save my cash.

Tablets
Tablets will get these features, slowly.  It's hard to say what will happen because the Motorola Xoom (the tablet I'd call the first real Android tablet) is yet to be released.  But just like with the iPhone and iPad, new features will appear in the phones first, then trickle down to the tablets.

That's it for Android.  If I have time, I'll write about WP7 and the other OSes.

Speculation: iPad 2 and iPhone 5

It's already February and I haven't listed the specs for all the upcoming gadgets.  My bad.  I'll start with the Apple products.

The Obvious: Thinner, Better, Faster
As usual, the next iPad and iPhone will likely be faster due to upgraded RAM or an upgraded processor (likely dual-core) or both.  The iPad 2 might be thinner, but the iPhone 5 probably won't because Apple already went through a major design change with the iPhone 4 after three phones with the same design.  They aren't likely to change it up again (except to fix that pesky antenna problem).  The next iPad will come out in April or May and the next iPhone will be released in June or July.

iPad
The next iPad should have a CDMA antenna so it can be available through Verizon.  Verizon has already promised a Verizon iPad, although the iPad 2 wasn't specifically mentioned.  The iPad will NOT have the rumored SD card slot if for no other reason than it would ruin Apple's tiered pricing for different amounts of storage.  Front and back cameras are rumored.   I definitely agree with the front-side camera because it would mean Facetime was available on one more device.  AppleInsider says it might have a mini DisplayPort.  A price drop is somewhat out of character for Apple, but it would help them compete with the cornucopia of Android tablets that will be release this year.  A price drop on the more expensive models is more likely than a price change on their cheaper models.

CrunchGear has a good article on what might and might not be in the iPad 2.  I agree with them on most of it, especially the thinner body and better speakers.  I disagree with the resolution.  Putting a retina-display-style screen on such a large screen would be expensive (though not impossible).  Upping the resolution slightly is more likely and could be done without "awkward" resizing of elements.

It will run iOS 4.3.

iPhone
The next iPhone will also be available on Verizon, so don't get that iPhone 4 yet.  Seriously, just wait 4 months.

The iPhone 5 is rumored to have NFC (near field communication).  Apple doesn't add features to their gadgets unless the features are implemented well, so if the phone does have NFC, you can bet that it will be set up to make payments.  There is little else you can do with NFC.  Apple will have partnered with credit card companies or perhaps worked out a payment system through Verizon and AT&T.  It wouldn't make a lot of sense to force users to pay their bills through iTunes.

It might have 4G.  There have been rumors that the next iPhone will have both a CDMA (Verizon) and GSM (AT&T) antenna since the Verizon iPhone 4 has a baseband chip that supports both technologies.  That chip also supports HSPA+ (AT&T's initial "4G" network), but it doesn't have anything to do with LTE (Verizon's 4G network).  If they add in support for LTE, then it would support Verizon's current 4G network and AT&T's future 4G network, while possibly supporting AT&T's current 4G network and both 3G networks.  In short, it would be a multi-carrier future-proof phone.  That would be great, but a bit out of character for Apple, who only puts the bare minimum of features in their phones, unless those features are shiny and pretty. But by then, most new Android phones will have 4G.  Hard to call.

Price will be the same.  No reason to change that.

There will be a 64GB model.

Some software updates to catch up with Android features.

iPhone Nano
The blogsphere has been awash with rumors of a smaller, cheaper iPhone ever since the Wall Street Journal posted this rumor.  It could be true, but it seems like a mistake.  Supposedly, the phone would have less storage, but MobileMe or iTunes would allow users to instead stream music from the Internet, or from their computers through the Internet.  Thus, if you're without Internet, you're without music.  It would also be "half the size of the iPhone 4", which would make Internet browsing ridiculously bad if this means the screen is half the height.  Currently, the iPhone 3GS is $50 on contract (and other Android phones are even cheaper), so I don't see the point of an iPhone Nano unless it is super cheap without a contract.  There are Apple fanboys that will buy anything with a fruit logo on it; perhaps Apple will release this just to test their loyalty.

That's it for Apple.  I'll post soon (hopefully) with Android and WP7 speculation.


Update:  The iPhone Nano didn't sound likely. The New York Times said today (2/17) that Apple is considering a cheaper phone, but not a smaller phone.  This won't happen either, at least not this year.  Old iPhones are already cheap: the 3GS is $50, and a used 3G will run you ~$150 with no contract on eBay.  The only way Apple could compete with their old phones and successfully release a new, cheaper "iPhone Express" would be to make a phone that costs around $200 and somehow isn't worse than a 3G.  They can't, so I don't think they will even try.

Speculation: The Verizon iPhone Rumor, Version 4

The iPhone was released exclusively (in America) for AT&T customers in 2007. Lots of evidence points to AT&T and Apple signing a five-year exclusivity contract, meaning the iPhone wouldn't be released to other American carriers until 2012. Yet, every year since then tech media have posted rumors of the iPhone moving to other carriers, usually Verizon by "next year".  It didn't happen in 2008, it didn't happen in 2009, and it's not happening in 2010. But the latest rumor says the iPhone will make its way to Verizon in 2011! This rumor, too, is false.

Maybe.

Although releasing an iPhone in 2011 would mean Apple would have to pay back AT&T part of the gajillion dollars they received for their iPhone exclusivity contract, this may not be such a bad idea.  Here's why:

1) AT&T is probably reaching a saturation point.  If you haven't bought an iPhone yet, you probably don't want one or aren't willing to switch carriers.  This means, more than ever, Apple can make a lot of money by selling the phone on a different carrier.

2) The iPhone is losing steam, frankly.  Already Android has overtaken iOS in worldwide mobile OS popularity by nearly 2%, coming in 3^rd after Symbian and BlackBerry OS.  IDC predicts that this distance will more than quintuple by 2014.  Although Apple's iOS is still beating Google's Android (and Microsoft's WinMo) in America, ComScore shows that iOS is only ~7% away higher than Android's market share and that Android's market share has grown more than 5% in recent months.  Android is coming and when it takes over, Apple's iPhone will become a niche cell phone, much like their desktops and laptops.

The iPhone can't and won't stay on top forever.  By 2011, iPhones will be less popular than Android (their main competitor) in the US and worldwide.  If Windows Phone 7 takes off, it will be even harder for Apple to hold on to their coveted position.  It would be in Apple's best interest to open sales of their phone to as many consumers as possible while the iPhone is still cool and coveted.  This moment, after their most revolutionary upgrade of the iPhone, is that time.  That's why you just might see a Verizon iPhone either in January 2011, or next summer when they release the fifth iPhone.