Speculation: The Verizon iPhone Rumor, Version 4

The iPhone was released exclusively (in America) for AT&T customers in 2007. Lots of evidence points to AT&T and Apple signing a five-year exclusivity contract, meaning the iPhone wouldn't be released to other American carriers until 2012. Yet, every year since then tech media have posted rumors of the iPhone moving to other carriers, usually Verizon by "next year".  It didn't happen in 2008, it didn't happen in 2009, and it's not happening in 2010. But the latest rumor says the iPhone will make its way to Verizon in 2011! This rumor, too, is false.

Maybe.

Although releasing an iPhone in 2011 would mean Apple would have to pay back AT&T part of the gajillion dollars they received for their iPhone exclusivity contract, this may not be such a bad idea.  Here's why:

1) AT&T is probably reaching a saturation point.  If you haven't bought an iPhone yet, you probably don't want one or aren't willing to switch carriers.  This means, more than ever, Apple can make a lot of money by selling the phone on a different carrier.

2) The iPhone is losing steam, frankly.  Already Android has overtaken iOS in worldwide mobile OS popularity by nearly 2%, coming in 3^rd after Symbian and BlackBerry OS.  IDC predicts that this distance will more than quintuple by 2014.  Although Apple's iOS is still beating Google's Android (and Microsoft's WinMo) in America, ComScore shows that iOS is only ~7% away higher than Android's market share and that Android's market share has grown more than 5% in recent months.  Android is coming and when it takes over, Apple's iPhone will become a niche cell phone, much like their desktops and laptops.

The iPhone can't and won't stay on top forever.  By 2011, iPhones will be less popular than Android (their main competitor) in the US and worldwide.  If Windows Phone 7 takes off, it will be even harder for Apple to hold on to their coveted position.  It would be in Apple's best interest to open sales of their phone to as many consumers as possible while the iPhone is still cool and coveted.  This moment, after their most revolutionary upgrade of the iPhone, is that time.  That's why you just might see a Verizon iPhone either in January 2011, or next summer when they release the fifth iPhone.